AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower this morning. They settled 4 1/4 to 6 cents higher on Turnaround Tuesday. Preliminary open interest showed new buying, up 2489 contracts. A slight decline in crop conditions was supportive, and a stronger USD was ignored. The USDA Crop Progress report indicated that 73% of the US corn crop was in the dough stage as of Sunday, with 26% dented vs. the 13% average. All states except NC were above normal pace for denting. The only states to show an increase in crop ratings were SD and PA, with IA and KS steady. ND conditions deteriorated by 14 points, with NE down 6 and IL 5 lower on the Brugler500 Index. Ukraine’s UkragroConsult increased their 2018 corn production estimate by 1.2 MMT to 28.5, moving closer to USDA’s 31 MMT.

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently 6 to 7 cents lower after settling 7 1/2 to 11 cents higher on Tuesday. Rain in the Corn Belt is getting the blame. Soybean open interest changed very little yesterday, but soybean meal saw a surge of new buying interest with OI up 5,617 contracts. Nearby soy meal was up $8.30/ton, with soy oil 15 points lower. China continues to pay a huge FOB premium for Brazilian beans that are exempt from the Chinese imposed 25% tariff. NASS reported that 84% of the US soybean crop was setting pods as of Sunday vs. the average of 72%. The crop was rated at 66% good/ex, with the Brugler500 Index dropping 1 point from last week to 369. Conditions improved last week in IN, OH and SD among other states, with ND down 20 points in the Brugler500 Index system and both NE and MO dropping 9. NOPA is expected to show July member crush of 161.74 mbu (survey average), which would be well above last July.

Wheat

Wheat futures are trading 1 to 5 cents lower this morning, with KC HRW the firmest. They were anywhere from 1 1/4 to 8 1/4 higher yesterday, with SRW the strongest. Improved crop condition ratings and rapid harvest kept a lid on spring wheat buying in Minneapolis. The spring wheat crop is 35% harvested vs. the 5 year average pace of 27%. Most spring wheat states are ahead of their average progress, with ID and WA lagging. Spring wheat condition ratings were up 1% for the week to 65% gd/ex, moving the Brugler500 Index up 1 to 382. MN conditions were down 4 points, with ND and MT up 2. Egypt’s GASC bought 420,000 MT of wheat from Russia and Romania at their tender. They have not purchased US wheat since 2014.

Cattle

Live cattle futures settled 7 to 77 cents higher on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures were mixed with nearby Aug up 27 cents and back months as much as 57 cents lower. The CME feeder cattle index was down 48 cents from the previous day on 8/13, at $150.64. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $1.21 at $209.64, while Select boxes were $1.61 higher at $201.27. USDA FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 237,000 head through Tuesday. That is even with the previous week and 5,000 head above the same week in 2017.

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures settled 52 cents lower to 12 cents higher. August expired at $55, the only contract in minus territory. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.76 on August 10, to $58.28. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.27 from the previous day at $69.74 on Tuesday afternoon. The loin, picnic, and belly primals were all lower. The national base hog carcass value was down $1.04 in the Tuesday PM report, with the weighted average @ $42.69. USDA estimated weekly hog slaughter at 935,000 head through Tuesday. That is up 87,000 head from last week as the plants are back online, and 38,000 head above the same week last year.

Cotton

Cotton futures are trading 44 to 67 points lower today. They went home 6 points lower to 28 points higher on Tuesday. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed 17% of the Texas cotton crop’s bolls were opening as of Sunday, with the average at 12%. Condition ratings in TX fell another 9 points to 248, with GA down 5 at 369. Last week’s first Cotton Ginnings report of the 18/19 MY from the USDA showed 19,600 RB had been ginned as of August 1. Those were all in Texas, and just 18.29% of the August report last eyar. The Cotlook A index was down a sharp 205 points from the previous day at 95.25 cents/lb on August 13.


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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